The IPCC’s 1.5°C-aligned guidance on fossil gas states that its role in the energy system will diminish by 20–60% by 2050, with the use of gas peaking in 2035 (IPCC AR6 WGIII, April 2022, Chapter 6, Section 6.7.4). It also highlights that for fossil gas to maintain a role in electricity generation, carbon capture will be key. The IPCC's AR6 WGIII report explains that maintaining existing fossil fuel infrastructure would generate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in excess of the remaining carbon budget for a 1.5°C-consistent energy transition. As such, a combination of early retirements, reductions in utilization, and the cancellation of new fossil fuel infrastructure would be needed to meet the 1.5°C target (IPCC AR6 WGIII, April 2022, Technical Summary). To that end, the AR6 report indicates that continued investments in fossil gas infrastructure would see energy systems lock in higher-emission technologies and that fossil fuel to fossil fuel switching (e.g., coal to fossil gas) would be a "limited and dangerous strategy" (IPCC AR6 WGIII, April 2022, Chapter 11, Section 11.3.5).
A +2 score, indicating strong alignment with the IPCC’s science-based guidance on the role of fossil gas in 1.5°C pathways, is achieved by supporting stringent intervention to remove unabated fossil gas from the energy mix. Such positions should be communicated with reference to timelines that align with IPCC guidance for the period between 2020–2050. A +2 is also applied to statements that advocate for policy action to phase out unabated fossil gas.
A +1 score, indicating partial alignment with the IPCC’s science-based guidance on the role of fossil gas in 1.5°C pathways, is achieved by communicating general support for reducing fossil gas in the energy mix or acknowledging that residual fossil gas usage must be dependent on carbon capture. In the power sector, a +1 is also applied to statements that indicate support for switching from coal to fossil gas with carbon capture for residual power production while also acknowledging the broader need to transition to a zero-emissions power system.
A 0 score, indicating neutral alignment with the IPCC’s science-based guidance on the role of fossil gas in 1.5°C pathways, is achieved by supporting a pathway that includes a reduction of fossil gas in the energy mix but without details that clarify if this pathway aligns with IPCC guidelines for limiting warming to 1.5°C. A 0 is also applied to statements that support "low-carbon" or "decarbonized gases" without clarifying the extent to which this includes fossil gas or carbon capture.
A -1 score, indicating partial misalignment with the IPCC’s science-based guidance on the role of fossil gas in 1.5°C pathways, is achieved by supporting a continued role for unabated fossil gas in the energy mix, emphasizing concerns about the economic challenges or technological feasibility of transitioning away from fossil gas, or supporting fossil gas on the basis that it is a "clean" or "low-carbon" fuel. A -1 score is also applied for supporting coal-to-gas switching without placing clear conditions on the need for carbon capture.
A -2 score, indicating strong misalignment with the IPCC’s science-based guidance on the role of fossil gas in 1.5°C pathways, is achieved by statements that oppose the transition away from fossil gas or support new investments and supply in fossil gas. -2 is also applied to statements that support coal-to-gas switching over other zero-carbon options or oppose the need for stringent conditions for carbon capture and storage.
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The concept of the energy trilemma – the need to deliver emissions reduction, while keeping the lights on and minimising price impacts – may be a well-worn one, but it remains accurate. The only way to achieve a zero-carbon power system is if the lights stay on and customer bills are kept as low as possible. Failure to do so risks losing public support, delaying the transition at precisely the point it must accelerate. Renewables backed with storage meets all three elements of the trilemma, and Australia’s renewables transition is already well underway. However, we need to accelerate the growth of the sector if we are to create the zero-carbon economy of the future. Renewable generation, transmission and long duration energy storage must be ready well in advance of coal generation exit. The exit of coal generation is unstoppable. There’s a good chance it will happen faster than expected, as ageing coal units struggle to keep up with renewables. As these units go, they take with them energy reserves. We need to replace these energy reserves to maintain reliability of supply. While some would have you believe it, nuclear and gas are not the solution. Nuclear is an uneconomic technology and is a poor fit for Australia. Gas will play a small role in the energy transition however it simply cannot provide enough energy while staying within carbon budgets. Long duration energy storage offers a superior solution. It complements transmission and renewables, moving energy through time to when it’s most needed. It reduces the total infrastructure we need to build, lowering costs and customer energy prices.
Created - 15/07/2024
Last Edited - 15/07/2024
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Supporting the decarbonization of the steel sector and recognizing the risks of relying on fossil gas to transition away from coal in steel production (Corporate Website, Climate Action Report 2024, May 2024)
Against this backdrop, it is essential that Indian steel manufacturers such as ourselves innovate in order to transition away from carbon - a process we are calling ‘Decarbonization’. And it makes good business sense too. [...] Firstly, whilst less carbon polluting than coal, the burning of natural gas still represents a significant contributor to our emissions intensity; Secondly, India has limited natural gas supplies and imports are expensive.
Created - 12/08/2024
Last Edited - 12/08/2024
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Evidence suggests supporting policy to decarbonize the energy system. Unclear if position is aligned with IPCC advice on delivering 1.5°C warming (Energy Users Association of Australia, CEO, Andrew Richards, The Guardian, June 2024)
The prospect of factories in Victoria and NSW having gas supplies cut off with just a few hours’ notice underscores the urgency of addressing problems now, says Andrew Richards, the chief executive of the Energy Users Association of Australia. “We don’t need the distraction of [whether] nuclear happens in 2040, 2050, or wherever it is,” Richards said. “What we’re focused on is good energy market policy, to ensure the lights stay on, to put downward pressure on prices, and decarbonise the system. That’s our priority, and that’s what has to happen in the next 10, 15 years.” The electricity market already rewards big users who power down to avoid blackouts during peak load periods. A similar scheme looks likely for gas as governments must ensure households with gas heaters can use them, particularly in winter.
Created - 15/07/2024
Last Edited - 15/08/2024
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Stating support for fossil gas in the energy mix on basis that it is 'low carbon' without clear conditions related to CCS or mitigating methane emissions (Corporate webpage, 'LNG and the Environment', accessed July 2024)
Natural gas, like other energy sources, has an impact on the environment. That impact has been largely positive over the last two decades, as greater use of natural gas and LNG have contributed to reduced carbon emissions and provided reliable support and back-up for renewable energy.
Created - 24/07/2024
Last Edited - 26/10/2024
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Advocating for new investments that risk fossil fuel lock-in: advocating for oil and gas development (API CEO, Mike Sommers, X, February 2024)
U.S. oil & natural gas development should be encouraged by our leaders. California’s declining #energy production is a warning to elected officials that restrictions only lead to investment elsewhere. Thankfully, other states have stepped up to meet deman
Created - 23/02/2024
Last Edited - 23/02/2024
InfluenceMap Comment
Entity is communicating a position that is clearly consistent with a transition towards a zero-emissions power sector globally prior to 2050. Calling for the acceleration of the growth of the renewables sector and advocating for renewables backed with storage to replace fossil fuels. Arguing that nuclear is an uneconomical technology and a "poor fit for Australia" (CEC website, The future of long duration energy storage, June 2024)